I saved the second time I was dealt pocket aces that day for the last story to tell because I think it’s the most interesting from a hand analysis perspective.

UTG, I looked down at two black aces and just called the big blind. My intent was to re-raise, and given the raising frequency at the table, I was pretty confident I would get my chance. Foolhardy me! Eight people saw the flop in an unraised pot, and already the hand was off to a rough start.

Things looked brighter though after I flopped the nuts. The flop came Ac Kh 6h. With so many people in the pot though, I was done taking chances, and bet $35 into the $40 pot. Everyone folded except for one person–a player I had seen make a number of loose calls in the past. I had a better read on this player than on anyone else at the table, so I was fairly happy to get a call from him. At that point, there was a very wide range of hands he could hold, but a flush draw seemed most likely.

The turn was an off suit jack, but I remained unworried, as the only hand that could beat me would be a queen-ten which would have hit an inside straight draw. I bet $100 into the $105 pot, confident that any draw my opponent had would happily take the horrible odds offered and stay in the hand. Much to my surprise, my opponent now raised. He raised the minimum amount, making it $100 more to me.

Time to put him on a hand. First of all, I had picked up on a tell. When my opponent had a strong hand, he would slide way back in his chair and lean sharply forward. He looked like a defensive lineman getting ready to tear straight for a quarterback. Given this guy’s build and appearance, I honestly think he probably was a college football player once upon a time. He literally seemed like he was assuming a three point stance when he had a big hand. That’s exactly my opponent’s posture at that moment, so I could dismiss all weak holdings, bluffs, and draws.

This guy had a made hand, but it was one he couldn’t raise with preflop. He definitely wasn’t afraid to raise a lot of limpers preflop, so I dismissed A-K, A-J, and K-K from his range. I decided that K-J was very unlikely as well. First, he probably would have raised with it preflop. Second, he might have folded it on the flop. Third, I think he would have been a little more cautious with that holding. Fourth, I don’t think his Strong Hand Tell would have been so pronounced with that weak two pair. While I concede it might be a mistake to dismiss K-J from his range of potential holdings, at the time, that’s exactly what I did. That only leaves two contenders: Q-T and 6-6.

Some of you might be thinking he wouldn’t have Q-T there because it would be an inside straight draw. You would be making the mistake of projecting the way you play onto another person. In reality, I had early on seen this player draw at inside straights with much worse implied odds. As it is, if he got all-in, he would make enough to justify calling a pot sized flop bet with only 4 outs.

If he had 6-6 then I had him crushed. If he had Q-T then I had 10 outs to win. I was getting about 4:1 pot odds on a 3.4:1 draw, so I happily called. First though, I decided what to do on the river. I didn’t want to have to think about it after the card was dealt, so I decided to think about it before making the easy turn call. That added the benefit of making my hand seem weaker, and increasing the likelihood of getting paid off if I filled up on the river.

If I missed, I would check, my opponent would bet, and I’d have to think about calling. He had about $350 left in front of him, and I had him covered. There was about $500 in the pot. There were three ways he could have 6-6, and sixteen ways he could have Q-T. As such, I could expect to be ahead 3/19 of the time. If his bet was greater than 3/19 of the pot size (inclusive of the bet) then I would need to fold, otherwise I’d need to call. That’s a bit of a tough calculation to do in your head at the table while under pressure, but it’s surprisingly easy to guesstimate. 3/18 would be one sixth, which is 16 2/3%. 3/20 would be 15%. So if the bet size was much greater than 15% of the new pot size, I’d need to fold. With 500 in the pot, and given the flop action, a bet of $100 or greater would seem normal. A $100 bet would bring the pot up to $600, and 15% of 600 is 90–dictating a fold. Basically then, I decided I would fold to any bet $100 or greater, and call any bet that was smaller.

Take a minute to take this thought process to an even higher level. I was against an average-at-best opponent, but imagine if I’d been up against a top player. That player would himself be able to do all this reasoning, seeing that I would reach the conclusion I just reached. That would inform him that if he had 6-6, he needed to bet over $100 in order to get me to fold my winners. As a consequence, I’d have to make much looser calls against a top opponent (especially since I wouldn’t be able to eliminate the chance that the player was bluffing were it not for the tell–a tell I wouldn’t expect to pick up on a top player).

I also needed to decide what to do if I filled up on the river. This is another interesting conundrum. If my opponent has 6-6, then I make more money by check-raising. Betting into a paired board represents the full-house, and a scared bottom full might well just call. If checked to, however, he would certainly bet, and would probably have to call the raise. Conversely, against Q-T I’d probably make more money by betting out, as he might not bet the hand, but would probably call a reasonable bet. I decided to bet out $150. The times he held 6-6, betting out would probably cost me about $150 in opportunity (since I wouldn’t get to set him all-in with a check-raise), but against a straight, checking would probably cost me about $150, as I think that’s a bet he would call given the size of the pot. Since the straight was the more likely holding, I decided to bet out $150 on the river if I filled up.

The river was the eight of hearts for a final board of Ax Kh 6h Jx 8h. I checked, and my opponent said something about the heart killing his action and checked behind. Yeah, all that work figuring out what to do on the river was for naught.

I showed my set of aces, and he turned up Q-T for the win with a turned inside straight.

Posted by Beck as Poker at 4:34 PM PDT

2 Comments »

This past weekend, I found myself in a pleasantly soft 2/5 NLHE game in Atlantic City. Even better, I caught good cards for most of the seven hour session, including being dealt pocket aces four times. They held up twice. I decided the story of those four hands would make an interesting post, so here it is.

The fourth time I was dealt pocket aces was the least interesting. I raised, got one caller, bet the ragged flop, and took down the pot.

The third time was one of the losers, but I somehow managed to lose the minimum. There was one limper, and I raised to $25. Two loose players called, and the big blind–a young player of marginal skill–called. The limper folded. The flop came J-9-5 with two hearts (I did not hold the ace of hearts). Action checked to me, I bet $60 into the $107 pot, and only the big blind called. Interestingly, I had intended to bet $75, but accidentally came forward with too few chips. Then, rather than draw undue attention by acting weird and pulling my hand back to grab more chips, I just went with the $60 level. It would not have made any difference in the outcome of the hand, but it did save me $15. The turn was the last card I wanted to see: the ten of hearts. My opponent checked, and I checked behind. I don’t even remember what the river was, but the action went check-check, and the big blind turned up jack-ten offsuit for top two pair.

When I turned up my hand, the big blind commented, “Oh, I should have bet!” Clever fellow, wasn’t he?

The first time I was dealt aces was in only my second orbit of play after arriving at the table. I was sitting on about $425 in chips. The player UTG, who seemed relatively tight, open raised to $20. I was second to act, and re-raised to $40. It folded around to the big blind, who called, and the player UTG called. The flop was nine high and ragged. The action checked to me, and I bet $80. The player int he big blind check-raised to $160, and the player stuck between us folded. Now I had a tough decision. Basically, I needed to decide if my opponent had a set. He had shown signs of being a pretty loose preflop player in earlier hands, so ace-nine was possible, as were the over pairs.

The key realization at this point in the hand is that you’re not really being faced with an $80 call, you’re being faced with a call for all your money, as your opponent will almost certainly be getting the money in unless he’s on some sort of strange stone bluff. I asked him if he had a set, and he laughed and joked back with me. He seemed easy going and relaxed and genuinely happy with his hand, which was worrisome, but I ultimately decided that he probably didn’t have three-of-a-kind (key word: probably). I decided that he’d be trying harder to suppress his excitement if he had a hand that powerful. So I called.

Then I called his $100 turn bet. Then I called his $70 river bet. The small river bet was actually the scariest one of all. The decreased bet size seemed like a suck bet designed to vacuum a few last drops of money out of a marginal hand. My opponent then turned up his hand: pocket kings. He had set a good trap, successfully disguising the strength of his hand preflop, but wound up trapping himself against the one possible superior hand.

I had given serious thought on the flop to simply pushing all-in after the check-raise, and indeed, had I done that, I would have made a little more money on the hand. Conversely, I would have lost more money on the hand had I been behind. There was a greater risk though: that a hand like pocket tens or jacks would have folded, and that bluffing hands would all have to be abandoned. It’s impossible to do an EV calculation here without knowing the frequency with which he would have bluffed or semi-bluffed that flop, but on the whole, I think the decision is very close to break-even. Regardless, all but about $50 of my money got into the pot anyway, and it was a great way to take a lead early in the session.

When the hand was over, one player commented something along the lines of, “Great call. There were a lot of big hands possible there!” He was referring to the final board which was something like 9h 6d 4c 8h 6h. What the commenter completely failed to realize is that the only reasonable hands I had to worry about based on the action were pocket pairs. It hardly entered my mind that my opponent might show down a flush or a straight.

Posted by Beck as Poker at 1:17 PM PDT

1 Comment »

I had the an exchange with another player in a no limit game at Foxwoods a while ago where I had to bite my tongue and smile. It wasn’t easy. Now I’m going to respond.

First of all, here was the situation and conversation as it unfolded:

I raised with a pair of tens before the flop and got three callers. The flop came with a ten and two clubs. I bet about three quarters of the pot. Two people folded, and a decent player called. The turn was a brick, I bet half the pot, the other guy called. The river was a club. I checked, and my opponent checked behind. I turned up my hand and said, “Set of tens.”

He asked, “Why didn’t you bet the river?” I responded, “I was worried about the flush.” At this point, my opponent went into full on lecture mode, declaring, “Oh please, do you know what the odds of me actually having two clubs there is?” I made no response. “Seriously, do you?” “Not off the top of my head I replied,” and left it at that, my tongue crying out in pain.

OK buddy. Here’s my answer.

You’re asking the wrong question. It doesn’t matter what the odds are of you being dealt two clubs; what matters is the odds of you having two clubs given all the action to that point. On the flop, I have to worry about three people who might have two clubs, so the chances that’s what I’m up against is tripled for starters. That you are the one who called my flop bet doesn’t suddenly decrease the chances of one of the three of you holding two clubs. And while a great many of your potential holdings would have been folded to my flop and/or turn bets, none of the holdings that include two clubs would have folded. So what you should really be asking is, “What is the conditional probability that you have two clubs given the range of hands you could be holding after the action in the hand to that point?”

The next question should be, “What’s my expected value of a bet given that range?” If I bet there, there’s a certain number of hands you’ll fold–probably a pretty large chunk of the hands you might be holding at that point–turning my bet into a pointless exercise in increased risk. Some of the time you’ll call with a worse hand, and I lose money there by not betting into those hands. Some of the time you’ll call with a flush, and some times you’ll raise with a flush, at which point I have a hard decision and a very good chance to lose a lot more money. So while the two clubs hands only represent a fraction of your potential holdings, they have to be weighted very heavily as they’re the money-loss-causing fraction of your holdings. Any more questions smartass?

Incidentally, the odds of being dealt two clubs are 1/4 * 12/51 = 1/17 = 5.9%. Of course, with three clubs on the board (and four other cards definitively eliminated), the chances are decreased to 10/45 * 9/44 = 1/22 = 4.55%

Posted by Beck as Poker at 11:55 AM PDT

2 Comments »

So, Beck will be in Vegas in mid-July, and Mike is talking about trying to go then because that’s around his birthday.

However, my birthday is June 5th — the day the WPBT 2008 non-event starts. I’ll be 30 and what better way to celebrate my 30th birthday than donking it up with poker bloggers?!

But, that’s also when summer school starts, and a trip to Vegas isn’t exactly the most responsible thing to do as I try to finish out school. Hmm. Decisions, decisions.

Posted by Jaxia as Life, Travel, WPBT at 1:41 PM PDT

4 Comments »

The following exchange happened last night at Foxwoods between myself and the player to my left. Believe me when I say that this is a conversation you never want to have with me… or anyone for that matter.

Me: “Dude, you have a straight flush!”
Dude: “I know!”
Me: “So why didn’t you raise???”

The board on the river was 7h 8h 9h Th X (I don’t remember the last card, but it wasn’t a heart). Dude checked, the other guy in the hand bet $50, and Dude called. Then he turned up the jack of hearts. As soon as I spoke, the guy looked up and realized that his Victim had more chips. He simply couldn’t see them because of the way Victim’s hands were positioned. Furthermore, Victim didn’t have any hearts in his hand at all, and wouldn’t have called another cent, so honest mistake and no opportunity cost.

Sadly, that’s not the first time I’ve seen that happen. The other time was much worse. There was a one gap four card straight flush on board. The hapless fool on my left checked, the next player to act bet, and the hapless fool, after thinking about it for a while, decided to call. All he had was a medium-high card of the suit, and he only called given the chance that his opponent was bluffing. As you’ve no doubt deduced, that medium-high card gave the hapless fool a straight-flush. His opponent had the ace of the suit. And they were both deep stacked. the error cost him well over three hundred dollars.

So please, folks, please. Don’t ever make that mistake. Really. Every time the last player to act on the last street merely checks or calls while holding the nuts and more cash behind, a puppy dog gets drop-kicked.

You wouldn’t want to be responsible for drop-kicking a puppy dog would you?

Posted by Beck as Poker at 4:53 PM PDT

5 Comments »

I’m going to be in Vegas over the weekend of July 11 for my bachelor party. Any and all readers of the site are encouraged to let me know if you’re going to be there at the same time. Donkey poker shall be played in excess.

I’ll toss up another post on the subject when it gets closer to the actual date, but I wanted to mention something now while the airfare is still cheap enough to buy without taking out a second mortgage.

Posted by Beck as Poker at 4:23 PM PDT

1 Comment »

Probably because I’m not Howard Lederer. In an extract from a recent strategy page written for fulltiltpoker.com, Lederer makes an observation about the payout structure for SNGs which I’d never thought of, but which makes complete sense. It’s changed the way I think about SNGs, that’s for sure.

But there’s another not-so-obvious reason to play tighter earlier and looser later: The payout structure rewards tight play. Most SNG’s pay 50% to first, 30% to second, and 20% to third. This payout structure dictates that you play for third. Why? Looking at the payout structure another way might help. Basically, the payout means that 60% gets awarded once you’re down to three players, 20% gets awarded when you get down to two players, and the final 20% gets awarded to the winner. If you can just get to third, you get at least one-third of 60% of the prize pool, or 20%. You’ve locked up a profit, and you have a chance to win up to 30% more. It’s only now that you’re in the top three that your strategy should take an abrupt turn. Now it pays to gamble for the win. Let’s look at the numbers again: 60% of the prize pool is off the table, and moving up one spot is worth only another 10%. But move up just one more spot and it’s worth a whopping 30% extra — that’s three times more for first than it is for second. And with the blinds going up, gambling for the win is even more clearly the correct play.

Posted by Beck as Poker at 4:22 PM PDT

3 Comments »

Why do people raise the minimum pre-flop in no limit games? Seriously. This is something I do not understand. I try very hard to understand the motivations and reasoning of my opponents so that I can better get inside their head. In this case though, I find myself at a complete loss. So I’m writing a public appeal to you all: could someone please explain this phenomenon to me? I just don’t get it.

What in hell are pre-flop min-raisers thinking???

Posted by Beck as Poker at 4:30 PM PST

10 Comments »

Pat (12:30:08 PM): you playing poker today
Beck INCITE (12:30:21 PM): si senor
Beck INCITE (12:31:02 PM): played at foxwoods yesterday
Beck INCITE (12:31:07 PM): made 2 big calls
Pat (12:31:16 PM): do tell
Beck INCITE (12:32:06 PM): ok, i’m 3 off the button
Beck INCITE (12:32:24 PM): a weak-tight old man UTG limps, folds to me. mostly tight people behind me and i have pocket aces.
Beck INCITE (12:32:38 PM): i decide to raise light to get at least some action. raise to $10 (standard has been 12-17)
Beck INCITE (12:32:47 PM): one fold, cut-off and button both call
Beck INCITE (12:33:07 PM): cut-off is tight and straightforward. button is quite loose preflop but a solid post-flop player
Beck INCITE (12:33:11 PM): blinds and limper fold
Pat (12:33:44 PM): so old man folds
Beck INCITE (12:33:55 PM): right
Beck INCITE (12:34:07 PM): $35 in the pot (no rake at foxwoods, just time charge)
Beck INCITE (12:35:00 PM): flop comes 3-3-6 rainbow. i bet $25. CO calls, which is a bit scary, since he’s straightforward and i’ve pegged him as a folder. button folds. $85 in the pot
Pat (12:36:06 PM): he has 9-9 to j-j
Beck INCITE (12:36:18 PM): could be AK
Beck INCITE (12:36:28 PM): also, he’s shown a willingness to put in a little money with suited connectors preflop
Beck INCITE (12:36:36 PM): so 34s 45s 56s 67s
Beck INCITE (12:36:59 PM): and really, any pocket pair JJ or lower is possible
Beck INCITE (12:37:53 PM): turn is a ten, putting 2 clubs on the board
Beck INCITE (12:38:44 PM): I decide to check. that’s the most questionable action i take, as he hasn’t really given me a reason yet to think i’m behind. but i only have a pair at this point, and i dont think there are too many likely draws against me, so i’m either way ahead or way behind. here i’m trying to manipulate pot size to keep things reasonable
Pat (12:39:04 PM): you should have just folded
Pat (12:39:08 PM): not even checked
Beck INCITE (12:39:13 PM): lol
Beck INCITE (12:39:17 PM): CO thinks about it for a few seconds then bets $55. i make a pretty easy call
Pat (12:40:03 PM): so river you check.. he value bets.. you call.. he flips over full house?
Pat (12:40:17 PM): made it on the river… he knew it was coming
Beck INCITE (12:40:23 PM): river is an offsuit King. i check. opponent thinks. he bets $125 into the $195 pot
Beck INCITE (12:40:38 PM): which really really really smells like a value bet by someone who knows his opponent is strong and wants to get paid off
Beck INCITE (12:41:00 PM): so i decide to try to get him talking. which has worked very well for me in the past
Beck INCITE (12:41:05 PM): “you have sixes full?”
Beck INCITE (12:41:29 PM): he gave me a sympathetic smile and said simply, “I think I have the best hand.” his voice was even and not high pitched at all. very confident.
Pat (12:41:39 PM): so you move all in.. he thinks about for long time.. but calls and shows you 3’s buried for quads?
Beck INCITE (12:41:44 PM): at first, i was a bit shaken, but then i started to think about what he’d actually said. made me think he had a middle pair
Beck INCITE (12:42:01 PM): i decided to table my aces (legal at foxwoods when heads up) [”Table my aces” means turn them face up for all the world to see. –Beck]
Beck INCITE (12:42:06 PM): the whole table gets interested
Beck INCITE (12:42:17 PM): i’m wasting a lot of time at this point, but they dont seem to mind
Beck INCITE (12:42:28 PM): “you see why i have such a hard decision now?”
Beck INCITE (12:42:34 PM): he nodded again, but was no longer speaking
Beck INCITE (12:42:41 PM): 15 more seconds and i notice he has gone statuesque
Beck INCITE (12:42:52 PM): he’s petrified. i call. he mucks. i win.
Beck INCITE (12:43:06 PM): the table erupts. “Good call!”
Beck INCITE (12:43:31 PM): the emporer shows a thumbs-down. i deliver the mortal blow. crowd goes wild.
Pat (12:44:36 PM): you rock star
Beck INCITE (12:44:50 PM): i talked to him later. said he had a hand but knew i was stronger but thought it was the right moment to take away a pot. said he almost never bluffs, but when he does, he likes to go big. turns out even straight forward players can get out of line now and then
Pat (12:45:22 PM): prob 7-7 to 9-9 then
Beck INCITE (12:45:38 PM): yeah

Posted by Beck as Poker, Poker Strategy at 1:21 PM PST

No Comments »

Whenever something outlandish or unlikely happens in an online poker game, someone inevitably feels the need to say something like, “Welcome to Poker Stars,” or, “Only on Full Tilt.” Well I just played the $100 daily tournament at Foxwoods, and had a run every bit as stupefying as anything I’ve ever endured online. I’ll put the moral of the story up front: weird, unlikely, crazy, unpredictable stuff happens all the time. Online. Live. You name it.

Or to put it another way: Live poker is rigged!

I started off well, picking up a few small pots. In the second level, with blinds at 50/100 (starting stacks 5000), I called a pre-flop raise with pocket 5s, flopped a set, and took half of the pre-flop raisers stack. It would have been more, but I hadn’t realized just how strong he was: he had pocket aces. The very next hand, the same player raises, and I call with pocket 9s. There’s not much action, but the pre-flop raiser pushes all-in on the river. I read him as being pretty weak and called with my unimproved 9’s. He had pocket aces again. After the hand he actually asked, “Did I do a good job of faking being weak?” He had done a terrific job. He didn’t act weak, he just seemed weak. The nervous swallow finally sold me.

Times running into aces: 2
Times cracking aces: 1
Times running into back-to-back aces: 1

The next level, with blinds of 100/200, I open raise to 600 with pocket jacks. The player to my left re-raises to 1500, it folds to me, and I have a decision to make. The raiser has put half his stack in. Ordinarily I’m going to slow down here, but a little while ago, he had re-re-raised all-in from the button with pocket 7s, so I have to put him on a pretty wide range here. I decide to push. He calls. He has pocket aces and they hold up, leaving me with only 650 chips. The very next hand, I look down to see Qs Js and with an M barely over 2, I push all-in. The player to my left calls. He has pocket aces again. The flop is 5s 6s Ad. The turn is a brick, but the river is a spade, and I double up to stay alive.

Times running into aces: 4
Times cracking aces: 2
Times running into back-to-back aces: 2

And that’s in less than an hour.

An orbit later, with 100/200/25 blinds, on the big blind, one limper, small blind calls, and I get a strong feeling from the first limper that 1) he’s aware I might push here, and 2) he’s prepared to call. I look down at pocket 7s, push, and he calls (SB folds). He had pocket 6s and I double up.

We go off to the break, come back to 200/400/50 blinds, I’m again in the big blind. It folds to the weak player in the cut-off who limps, the small blind calls, and I push all in with 3000 chips. There’s 1700 in the pot to be won, and I think my opponents are weak. They are. But the cut-off calls. With A9 off suit. He calls all-in, in fact, leaving me with about 700 chips. I have 69 off suit. The flop comes 3-6-9 giving me a miraculous two-pair. The turn is an ace, giving my opponent a miraculous better two pair. I am crippled.

The next hand, on the small blind, one player raises, another goes all-in, and a third calls. I look down to see J4 off suit, and sadly fold, despite the chance to nearly quintuple up. I think there’s just no way I have enough equity to call here. The three players in the hand hold AT, AQ, and AK, the board comes all low, and I would have won with a pair of fours. The next hand after that, a player with only 150 chips left (AQ from the previous hand) calls all-in for less than the BB, the cut-off calls, I call all-in for 350 chips from the button with A5s, the small blind calls, the button checks. There wasn’t any action until the river when the cut-off bet a weak 500, the small blind raised to 1000, the cut-off went all-in, and the small blind called. The SB had pocket 7s for 7s full. The cut-off had pocket 9s for 9s full. He also had the most chips to start the hand, and in a single hand, eliminated three players at once.

So don’t tell me that live play can’t be every bit as ludicrous as online.

Posted by Beck as Poker, Tournament Poker at 11:43 PM PST

3 Comments »