So Belize was great. Scuba diving, Mayan ruins, waterfalls, swimming, hammocks, snorkeling, manatees. Also, bugs. And tropical cocktails and Belizian beer (Belikin–good stuff). And lots and lots of sun.
Packing up the home has been less fun. On the upside, I could build a really awesome fort out of all the boxes I’ve packed. The electronics get broken down and crated up tomorrow, so I’m going right back offline until A) everything is delivered to a point 3,000 miles away, and B) internet service is installed. In the mean time, I wanted to write an introductory post setting up a few things for the 100,000 hands analysis that I’ve been promising.
First of all, these hands are all hold ‘em, but they are not even close to being played at the same stakes. For the sake of comparison, then, hands will be ranked according to BB/hand won and not by net won or avg/hand. If I were to rank my hands by net won, then the 7th best starting hand would be… QJo. Yup. Queen-jack off suit. Why? Because I won with it a couple times at higher stakes when taking a shot at what looked like a fishy game higher than I usually play. When ranked by BB/hand, however, QJo falls in at a more appropriate 17th best hand.
An interesting note on variance: after 100,000 hands, you would expect to receive each starting hand a number of times pretty close to the statistical expectation. For instance, you would expect to have received every pocket pair close an equal number of times. And yet while I was dealt pocket aces 459 times, I was only dealt pocket kings 436 times. That’s about a 5% difference (I already packed my calculator). 88 I’ve been dealt 488 times, but TT only 434 times. So even over 100,000 hands, you’re going to see statistical oddities which have an impact and skew the results.
Furthermore, while A7s and A4s have been winners, A6s and A5s have been losers. Do you really think I’m playing those hands all that differently? Or is it more likely that variance can have a surprisingly big impact, even over 100,000 hands. So try to keep that in mind during future posts.
Part of me didn’t want to do this series of posts, because the brutal honesty necessary to recognize obvious leaks in front of a large audience isn’t easy. Just wait until I talk about AKo and the AJ hands.
My highest winning hand? AA of course, pulling 5.48 bb/hand. Biggest loser?
Ace jack suited. After playing AJs 362 times, I have an average 1.25 bb/hand loss. That’s absolutely horrible. Meanwhile, 95o is a slight winner, pulling in a positive 0.03 bb/hand.
And it’s worth noting that my game has changed a lot over 100,000 hands. I am not the player I was 100,000 hands ago. For instance, over the last 11,532 hands my loss on AJs (note that it’s still a loss) is only 0.17 bb/hand.
These hands were all played online, which makes for much different circumstances from what would be experienced live. In an online game, a raise of 3.5bb might get an average of one caller. In a live game, a raise of 6bb might get an average of 3 callers. You have to really adjust for those additional callers, so be careful applying any lessons or conclusions I might draw to live play.
I’m signing off now, but will leave you with the ranking of my top 10 hands in the list. Be prepared for some surprises:
Hand - BB/Hand
AA - 5.48
KK - 2.32
AKs - 2.09
QQ - 0.77
JJ - 0.61
ATs - 0.60
T9s - 0.48
33 - 0.48
AQs - 0.46
KQs - 0.37
That look like anything you’ve ever seen published for a list of top ten poker hands?
Posted by Beck as Poker at 1:03 AM PDT
4 Comments »
Where’s a bad beat jackpot when you need one?
Posted by Beck as Poker at 3:05 PM PDT
4 Comments »
As much as poker bloggers love talking about the hammer (yes, I know, the hammer was soooo 2005), I’d never actually seen someone run 7-2 offsuit into aces before. And now I have. And I have the screenshot to show you.
Incidentally, the pot WAS raised preflop.
The names have been blacked out to protect the incredibly fishy.
Posted by Beck as Poker at 5:50 PM PDT
2 Comments »
This coming Friday (08/08/08) I’m getting married. Two days after that, I leave for my honeymoon in Belize. I return some time around the 18th, but then on the 25th, I’m moving to California (any readers in the Berkeley/Oakland area feel free to drop me an email/comment/whatever). So posting is going to be mixed-to-light during that time. After everything gets packed up, I likely won’t be back online until a week or two into September.
Once I get back online, I plan to launch into a series of posts on the subject of my last one hundred thousand hands of online poker which could well last me for a month or two. In the mean time, expect the usual random thoughts and hand analysis…
Enough of that, now here comes some chum for the sharks:
Playing at Foxwoods, I was seated near a guy who plays 16 tables at a time online. I quizzed him enough to conclude that he was telling the truth. Playing live, however, he was just having fun and goofing around. I forget his name, so I’ll just call him “Tom” for this post. One memorable hand was the time he limped under-the-gun with 8-5 offsuit, and wound up all-in with the big blind on a board of 8-5-8-2. The big blind also held 8-5, and they chopped the pot. Another memorable hand of his was when Tom cold called my under-the-gun preflop raise with 7-5 offsuit, flopped two pair, and after calling my flop bet, told me I was in trouble and asked if I wanted to just check it down. I quickly took his offer, sensing that my pocket aces were indeed cracked.
Another player–with a thick Russian accent–had just sat down at the table a little under an hour ago, and was playing very aggressively. He had been all-in three times, but never been called. I got the impression that he was bluffing on his all-ins to pick off weakness. So I waited for a chance to feign weakness in a hand and pick him off.
Tom’s playing was so unpredictable that I was never able to really put him on a hand. Except once.
A couple players llimped in, I folded, and Tom raised. The Russian, the big blind and both limpers called. The flop came 9-5-2, and Tom fired out a roughly half-pot bet. Only the Russian called. The turn was a 9, and now Tom checked. It was at that moment that I knew exactly what Tom had. Perhaps it was something in his demeanor when he checked. Perhaps it was the fact that I would have been playing that particular hand in exactly the same way. At any rate, I put him on ace-nine. The Russian, however, checked behind, so no excitement yet.
The river was a 3, which completed a couple inside straight draws, but was otherwise a blank. Tom gave a visible reaction as though that three had helped him, and very quickly fired a bet into the pot. I wanted to laugh. I was sure Tom had just given off a fake tell which was supposed to be identified as a fake tell. It was a double-reverse psychology play–”acting” strong when he actually was strong. The Russian didn’t hesitate. He went all-in. Tom didn’t hesitate. He called. Tom showed his hand… ace-nine. The Russian mucked without ever showing his cards.
Posted by Beck as Poker at 10:59 AM PDT
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